Hey everyone. It's Meteorologist Natasha Ramsahai here. Ask away! Anything you want to know about this or past storms, climate, how I forecast...I'm open to answering anything weather related.
Hello! This is CityNews.ca writer Christine Chubb. I will be moderating this live chat. Please continue to submit your weather questions.
Aliya, the short answer is yes. How bad will be determined by the placement of the jet stream and whether is steers in "small-snow" clippers, or "large-snow" lows from the south that have Gulf of Mexico moisture to work with. Statistically, we can see snow right up until early May!! Let's hope that doesn't happen!
Kevin, the next two weeks look to be well below seasonal in terms of temperatures. The jetstream does shift north aka. "getting milder" toward the 2nd half of the month. Let's hope that gets here for Valentines' Day!
Carly, there very well may be. Surges of arctic air are to be expected throughout the winter but typically last a few days. We will be into a prolonged "chill" for at least a week beginning tonight.
Samuel, personally, on a daily basis I use 5 models: GEMREG, GEMGLB, LAM, GFS and NAM. On storm days, I will additionally look at the HRRR and ECMWF.
YYZVIDEO thanks so much. Too bad I didn't get a chance to work with you!
I'm taking your weather questions live right up until 7pm...keep 'em comin'...
Dynamic systems like this one which are constantly changing require a constant adjustment to the forecast. If you read the Environment Canada forecast Monday night, it said 5-10cm. By Tuesday morning we could see that it was going to be much more and that is when I started upping the snow amounts myself. Env. Canada has static forecast update times: 3:30am, 11:00am, 3:30pm and 11:00pm. I do believe they upped their amounts in the 11am special weather statement but it went unnoticed. Hence why I believe that in Canada we need to have more warning categories including "advisories". The special weather statement has too many parameters blanketed under it.
Jacob, snow day tomorrow not likely in Toronto. We'll have to keep an eye on the snowbelts through where snow squalls are likely to pick up again.
Cathy, prolonged chill means below seasonal temperature wise for a while...at least a week. The positioning of the jetstream during such episodes tends to favour "clippers" which are areas of low pressure that move in from the Rockies out of the Northwest and have limited moisture to work with...they tend to drop a few cm's at a time vs. the Colorado low that gave us our winter blast today due to Gulf of Mexico moisture.
Sierra, that's awesome!! You need a strong background in science and math inc. physics, calculus etc. But nowadays, most jobs require you to be versatile so make sure you mix it up and take courses that show your interests too like Astronomy, Jazz Music, social sciences, communications etc. too. Good luck!!
PKT, actually the systems that have been coming out of Texas/Colorado that have been tapping into Gulf of Mexico moisture have been passing us to the south but really hitting the US south hard. These system come in from the Pacific Ocean, cross the mountains, and where they go from there depends on the jetstream which acts like train tracks for these systems. They are usually there, just where they go after the Rockies changes.
Cathy, I don't see any big snow makers over the next 7 days. It looks to be cold though with a few cm's here and there.
Ian good question. This snow system today passed by the the south of the lower Great Lakes. Typically, when that happens, the closer you are to the centre of the storm, the more snow you will get. Toronto/GTA was closer to the centre of the storm today than Simcoe County.
Snow totals SO FAR today are as follows:
NIAGARA ESCARPMENT 21
TORONTO PEARSON 14
SOUTH ETOBICOKE 22
EAST YORK 22
BUTTONVILLE AIRPORT 17
NORTH RICHMOND HILL 16
RICHMOND HILL 14
TORONTO RIVERDALE 18
TORONTO EAST YORK 20
Drazen, it would take a lot to enter an ice age. During the sunspot cycle where solar output is lower, we may indeed see cooler than average years. But even the 70's weren't an ice age.
Thanks everyone for your amazing questions. Hopefully I provided a bit of insight into what meteorologists do and how we put together our forecasts. Signing off until next time!...bundle up!
Hi everyone. Unfortunately we were not able to get to everyone's questions. But thank you all for taking part in this live chat.